Kompas.id

economic analysis ari kuncoro

For Indonesia, it is interesting trying to reveal consumer preferences before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Bagikan

Revealed Preferences and Growth Patterns

For Indonesia, it is interesting trying to reveal consumer preferences before and after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Relationship between US Dollar and Oil Prices

The positive correlation between oil prices and the US dollar index inverses, easing the burden on other countries.

Phillips Curve and Lessons from SVB

Indonesia has little exposure to SVB. Nevertheless, vigilance must still be increased by continuing to pay close attention to various domestic and foreign micro-banking and macroeconomic indicators.

Interaction of Expectations and Policy Dilemmas

Central banks in many countries have adopted “don't rock the boat” strategies. Indonesia and Canada, were among the countries that decided not to change their interest rates at the end of February-early March.

Conservative Outlook of Economic Growth

The hope is for a world recession, if it happens, to grow slowly rather than a sharp contraction. Perhaps inflation will remain above the normal average.

Iklan

Signs of Shallow Recession in United States

How deep will the US recession really go? A Reuters survey in December 2022 saying that the recession would be relatively short and shallow.

Direction of US Central Bank Policy

The signs of a world recession have begun to appear, especially in the eurozone. Excessive increase for the umpteenth time will accelerate the world entering the brink of a recession.

Manufacturing Exports and Imports

For Indonesia, the most relevant factor is the growth rate of the two world giants, the United States and China. They greatly affect the country’s export and import activities.

Resurgence of Covid-19 Pandemic

The resurgence of a pandemic almost always begins with an increase in mobility, which does not only occur in the formal sector. Activities that are related to aspects of celebrations often become the trigger.

Taking the Advantage of Pent-up Demand

The pent-up demand in Indonesia has a different character from that in the US and China. In the US, people shop for durable goods, especially gadget and in China there is a more balance between durable goods and service

Iklan