Global Uncertainty

So far, the consensus on global-economic projections for the next few years is stagflation or an era in which economic growth is low, while inflation is high.

Uncertainty is the biggest enemy of planning, while economics is a matter of projections and strategic calculations that are passed down in the budget. Day-by-day, economic projections are becoming more uncertain, so that imagination about the future based on currently available data is needed. As a result, planning becomes dialectic between vision (ideals) and reality that can quickly change according to changing situations.

Such an approach is known as scenario-based planning. Since the 1970s, the world’s major oil-and-gas company Royal Dutch Shell has developed this approach in coping with uncertainty in oil prices due to political conflicts in the Middle East region and the era of hyper-inflation. Apparently, this approach is very relevant to recent developments at a time of heightened uncertainty.