Energy Crisis, US Dollar and Recession

The World Bank estimates that Indonesia's growth in 2022 will remain at 5.1 percent, slightly above the 5.01 percent growth rate in the first quarter.

In its Global Economic Prospects report published on 7 June, 2022, the World Bank warned of the threat of the global recession accompanied by high inflation (stagflation) as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The World Bank cut its global growth forecast from 4.1 percent to 2.9 percent. This estimate is predicted to remain constant for the next two years because the war in Ukraine has disrupted the flow of investment and international trade, especially in the food and energy sectors.

The current situation bears many similarities to the 1970s, where supply-side disruptions were persistently preceded by accommodative monetary policies in developed countries.