The Irony of the Pandemic Stimulus

KOMPAS/TOTOK WIJAYANTO

Enny Sri Hartati

Indonesia can smile proudly, because, among the G-20 countries, it is predicted to have the second-fastest economic recovery, after China. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that Indonesia\'s economy will only contract 1.5 percent in 2020, below China\'s positive growth of 1.9 percent. South Korea is projected to record a contraction of 1.9 percent and Russia one of 4.1 percent.

However, Indonesia must be careful in responding to the IMF’s promising outlook. First, the IMF reference indicator remains in the magnitude of economic contraction. In fact, in three consecutive 2020 quarters, Indonesia’s economic growth rate was at 2.97 percent, minus 5.32 percent and minus 3.49 percent, respectively. To keep the economic contraction at no more than 1.5 percent in 2020, there must be spectacular growth in the fourth quarter of 2020. The economy must record positive growth of at least 4.34 percent.