Fiscal and Growth

History is perhaps a gloomy account about dissension, rivalry and conquest, including disputes between emerging forces and established forces.

Ancient Greek historian Thucydides once wrote how the Peloponnesian War broke out because the Athenians had become stronger, causing concern for the Spartans. The tension between China and the United States is a repeat of this history. A Harvard academic, Graham Allison, called it the Thucydides trap.

The tension between China and the US is not just a trade war. It deals with the US’ fear over China’s increasing dominance. Therefore, it seems that we must be prepared for a long tension. And the world economy has also felt its effects. In Asia, Singapore only grew 0.5 percent, Thailand 2.35 percent and Malaysia 4.37 percent. From this point of view, Indonesia is still doing quite good. We can still grow 5.02 percent in the third quarter of 2019. But of course we cannot close our eyes: Vietnam and the Philippines grew 7.31 percent and 6.18 percent respectively, better than us.